Bama Hawgs

[strayhorn]

It's like the ghost of Bear Bryant has ordinarily reasonable fans spooked. Bama - Hawgs a pick? Why? Bama's depth issues on the DL against the awesome Hawgs, especially Bokerman and Andrews, I mean how will they stop that running game?
How will Bama score? Any suggestion will do. Arkansas has the fastest secondary anyone will face in CFB. And Bama has no playmakers at wide receiver. Why will Shaud not see 8-9 in the box. Good Luck!

 

[BigPete]

I have a feeling that this will be like the UT/UF game with 70% on UF.

This Ark team is not much different than the one that lost to Bama last year at home. Im afraid Bama is due to gel on offense, the defense is there just needs the O to give em some rest. Sure Arkansas looked great, but they have tendencies to go flat and are very unpredictable.

Bama loss looked bad too as they were looking ahead, so even more public will be on Arky, I smell upset.

 

[strayhorn]

BigPete,

If Franchione was coaching I'd be looking at this game differently.
"Bama is due." Maybe you're right. And maybe since my coin toss was heads last time it will be tails this time.
I don't expect Alabama to roll over. But 4 quarters against this hawg crew is going to be too much. The hawgs smell a big feast for the SEC winner this year and they are hungry pigs.

And the 70% on ark is not what's showing on wagerline. If you have other sources please share them.

 

[BigPete]

Isn't it all a coin flip.

When I say due, I mean due. Many teams take time to learn new systems, but once they do, all things change. Its not a coin flip, that offense will get better as the year goes on, as will Croyle.

I dont buy the Arkansas hype but others will. Thought they were the real deal last year, but then I remember the SEC Championship when they layed down and took it up the ass.

This Arky team is not better than Okla, dont see the hogs running away this one. Remember that Bama was the No 1 D for some time last year, and Matt Jones cant pass.

This is a no play for me, I dont trust Shula or Nutt.

 

[DanTanna]

If Bama would've beat N Illinois last week, I would have made a big play on Arkansas this week. Now Bama will come in more hungry, but will still get their ass beat. Hogs have had this game circled all year. Bama embarassed them at home on national tv last year.
Don't fall for that myth that Matt Jones can't pass. The guy is a VERY accurate passer, but it gets lost b/c of his ability to run. The guy can do it all.

 

[Arbuckle]

I like Bama but not by much. Shaud Williams is a player and shows up in big games. OU knew he was getting the ball and still had a hard time slowing him down. Brandon Everage put a lick on Shaud which took him out of the game but he came back and still ran well. Brodie Croyle is a playmaker and should improve each week with Dave Radar running the show. Hogs played with alot of passion when they went to Austin. That will be hard to match but not sure of what kind of rivalry they have with Bama. They're hatred for the Horns matches that of OU & aTm. Nonetheless, every ex-SWC team considers texas their rival. Bama 23 Hogs 21

 

[strayhorn]

Good points. Bama is certainly capable of winning. But I notice many of the posts I read on the boards, have a script that counts on Bama being pissed off and up for the game and for the Hawgs to be complacent, and lose, due to their "expected" lack of passion. Could be, but it's all projection.

Croyle and Jones both have 3 passing TDs. But Croyle has 3 INT Jones has 0. Goes with being a passing team, I guess.
Croyle has 30 yards rushing Jones has 159 and 2 TDs.
I like Jones.
Can Croyle pass successfully against Ark? He must be successful in this dept. right?
Who is Croyle's backup???
Jones' backup is Sorahan 14/26 266 yds 1 td 0 int. Yes, he has played significant time. But he is not a run threat like the athlete, Jones.

Does Bama pose a running threat? Yes, Williams is a gamer. But if Ark can shut down the pass, with their great talent, how well will Bama run? Or if they shut down the run how well Bama pass?

In 4 games Bama has 9 offensive TDs.***
In 3 games Ark has 15 offensive TDs
Ala has averaged 172 yds/game rushing
Ark has averaged 236 yds/game rushing.
Arkansas wins the power game.

Bama will need turnovers and blown kick coverage to win.

*** subject to correction. quick head assessment.

 

[BigPete]

Look at strength of teams played by both. Bama has played 4 good teams (avg power rating of 41), with Ark playing 1 (avg power rating of 27.7). Based on those results, you cant make to many assumptions with stats, except that Bamas run defense is excellent.

When you see the running yards allowed by Bama ~68/game, cutting team's avg in half. Thats what throws up a flag. Ark is a running team averaging 45 carries per game, If you take that away which they probably will, Ark will have problems.

On the otherhand, Bama wont be able to do much on O either, but Justin Smiley should be back and that should help Shaud Williams get his yardage and Croyle have more pass protection.

Its a toss up, and based on how Bama has handled Ark in the past, its too tough to tell.

Looks like a low scoring game.

 

[strayhorn]

Good stuff, BigPete. But, Kentucky has no running game at all. Oklahoma not really running these days either. South Fla is a ? in this department as well. The only team with a running back, N. Illinois, pounded them.
If Bama stops Magic Matt Jones and Cedric Cobbs, Shawn Andrews and Mark Bokermann, and put points on the board, they deserve the win. Just don't see them doing it.

 

[DanTanna]

Good point Strayhorn. The only team with a definite running game abused Bama. Arkansas stats against Tulsa and N Texas are not telling either, considering the starters played about a half in both games.
The only question mark Arkansas had coming into this season was their defensive line. Looks like coach Rocker has the defensive line playing great so far.
I'm not saying Arkansas will dominate, but they should win.